Fan the Flames Football Forecast: Appalachian State

The Liberty Flames came up just short against Danny Rocco and the Richmond Spiders, falling 46-39 in double overtime, despite an outstanding game from Darrin Peterson (who currently leads the nation in receiving yards at the FCS level) and a school record 60 yard field goal from John Lunsford as time expired in regulation. Josh Woodrum had a solid game, finishing with 193 yards passing and a career high 98 yards rushing and 5 total TDs, although his streak of 300 yard games came to an end.

Not much time to lick the wounds this week as the Flames play their second FBS opponent:

 Appalachian State (1-4, 0-2 Sun Belt)

 vs.

Liberty (3-3, 0-0 Big South)

This is the last non-conference game of the season for the Flames, and with the loss to Richmond, and the struggles of the Mountaineers in their first season at the FBS level, this game lost a lot of its luster, but, with the bye week coming up, this is a chance to get some positive momentum before opening conference play against Gardner-Webb in two weeks

Matchup:

Location: Kidd-Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC

Series: Tenth Meeting (ASU leads 7-2)

Last Meeting: 29-22 ASU 09/21/2002

Kickoff:; 3:30 PM

Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play, Appalachian Sports Network/IMG College, David Jackson play-by-play

Television: ESPN3 (Announcers TBA)

Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd Season at Liberty, 16-12 Record), Scott Satterfield (2nd Season at Appalachian State, 5-12 Record)
Last Week: Liberty 39-46 2OT vs. Richmond. Appalachian State 21-47 vs. South Alabama

The Mountaineers have fallen on hard times since their threepeat from 2005-2007 as NCAA I-AA/FCS national champions. After the departure of legendary head coach Jerry Moore following the 2012 season, Satterfield, who returned that year to be the offensive coordinator and assistant head coach, was hired. Expectations were very high in Boone for a team that had won or shared the Southern Conference title 7 of the past 8 years before receiving an invitation to the FBS Sun Belt Conference in 2013. ASU struggled to a 4-8 record in a transitional year, and now come into their homecoming weekend losers of four of their first five games (the lone win coming against Campbell in week 2).

Liberty comes in losers of back to back games, the most recent a heartbreaker in front of a record homecoming crowd in Lynchburg. While it won't have as much play as it could have as far as an at-large berth is concerned, this is still an important game for the Flames. With the bye week coming next week as noted at the top of this week's post, Liberty doesn't want to go into the downtime on a three game losing streak. As Jon Manson noted on the Liberty Flames Nation blog, going into the bye on a three game downer could really kill this team's confidence, while a win (especially over an FBS) could give them a much needed boost, especially against one of the teams that was picked over the Flames when the Sun Belt looked to expand.

Prediction:

Liberty needs this game as much if not more than App State does (which still isn't much after the Richmond loss), and with the Flames ability to be competitive against FBS schools, that keeps them in this one, but if the front 7 can't get any legitimate pressure and the DBs make plays instead of giving a ton of space as they have the last couple weeks, the Flames will be headed back to Lynchburg with their 8th straight defeat in this series. I am picking ASU in a close one as I did before the season, but I would not be surprised if the Flames get a victory

Liberty 24
Appalachian State 28

Fan the Flames Review: Richmond

It was an electric atmosphere at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg as the Liberty Flames took the field for their annual Homecoming football game against the RIchmond Spiders. Josh Woodrum had another outstanding game, and though his streak of 300 yard passing games game to an end, he finished with 5 total TDs and John Lunsford set a new school record with a 60 yard field goal as time expired before the Flames fell in double overtime 46-39.

Here is the video of Lunsford's record breaking kick courtesy  of the Liberty Flames Sports Network Youtube page:

Lunsford's kick, the second time in three games where the junior has broken the school record for longest field goal, made #4 on Sportscenter's Top 10, the first time that Liberty football has made an appearance in the nightly countdown

Inside the Numbers

Here are a few numbers of note from the game last week:

20,838- The Richmond game was seen by a record 20,838 fans at Williams Stadium, the first time ever that 20,000 people were gathered outside of graduation. The previous record was 19,314 in 2010 against Savannah State

0- Liberty failed to convert a third down going 0/10, the first time the Flames failed to convert on third down since 2002

4- Darrin Peterson garnered his fourth straight 100+ yard receiving game, becoming the first since I believe Pat Nelson to accomplish that feat

6- The aforementioned field goal by Lunsford ranks as the 6th longest field goal in NCAA history at the I-AA/FCS level
14- Josh Woodrum and Darrin Peterson have connected 14 times including three more this past Saturday

I'll have a preview of the final non-conference game for the Flames against newly minted FBS member Appalachian State tomorrow

Fan the Flames Review: Indiana State

The Liberty Flames went to Terre Haute, Indiana and spun their tires in the home of the world famous Action Track, falling to the Indiana State Sycamores for the second time, 38-19

Josh Woodrum finished with 308 yards through the air, his third straight game with 300+yards,  although most of it came with the outcome of the game largely decided. He also threw two very costly interceptions, part of a 4 turnover day for the offense.

The other unfortunate outcome of the game was a rash of injuries, as backup running back Todd Macon, linebackers Jimmy O'Grady and Nick Sigmon, and third string running back Joshua Smith all are out this week, with Smith out for the remainder of the season.

Inside the numbers

Here are some interesting numbers from last week's matchup:

6- Despite the loss, Josh Woodrum finished with his third straight 300 yard passing game, and his 6th of his career, passing Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Mike Brown and former Flame Biff Parson. With his next game, the Cave Spring product will tie Phil Basso for second all time in 300 yard passing games, 4 behind all time leader (and 2013 Liberty Hall of Fame inductee) Robby Justino, who finished with 11 career 300 yard games.
11- With an 8 yard connection in the 4th quarter, Josh Woodrum and Darrin Peterson connected for the 11th time as a QB/WR connection. Hopefully in a future post I will be able to go over the all-time list for touchdown connections between
2- With a 300 yard performance against Richmond, Woodrum will become only the second player ever to pass for 300 yards or more in 4 consecutive games, joining Justino, but would be the first to do it in a single season
With two touchdown passes, Woodrum would also tie former Flames signal caller Antwan Chiles for 5th on the all-time career list for touchdown passes

Will have a preview of the Richmond game up tomorrow night and Friday I hope to have my interview with college sports writer John O'Connor from the Richmond Times-Dispatch

Fan the Flames Football Forecast: Indiana State

The Liberty Flames started fast for the second consecutive week and defeated #25 Bryant 38-21 in Williams Stadium last Saturday night. The Flames head back on the road for a bigtime non-conference test:

Indiana State (2-1, 0-0)

vs. 

#22/23 Liberty

Matchup

Location: Memorial Stadium, Terre Haute, IN

Series: Second Meeting

Last Meeting: 34-10 ISU 9/28/1996

Kickoff:; 3:00 PM

Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play)

Television: Liberty Flames Sports Network/ESPN3 (Liberty) Mike Tilley play-by-play

Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd Season at Liberty, 16-10 Record), Mike Sanford (2nd Season at Indiana State, 3-12 Record)
Last Week: 38-21 vs. #25 Bryant. Indiana State BYE

Liberty plays a team from the current top conference in all of FCS football, the Missouri Valley Football Conference, for the first time since 2008, when they take the field against the Sycamores. Indiana State came into the 2014 season following a 1-11 record, finishing 2013 with 9 straight losses, and the loss of their top RB in Shakir Bell among many last year. The Sycamores are off to a good start in 2014, defeating Ball State from the Mid-American Conference two weeks ago, and giving Indiana from the Big Ten all they could ask for in their opener.

The guy who makes it go in Terre Haute is Mike Perish, a transfer from Western Michigan. Perish passed for over 1600 yards and 10 TDs on the way to being named MVFC Newcomer of the Year. After suffering an injury against North Dakota State, the senior has thrown for 300+ yards in back to back games, much like Liberty signal caller Josh Woodrum.

Another transfer leads the way in the running game in fellow classmate Buck Logan. the tailback came to Terre Haute from Sacramento City College, finished with 609 yards and a single TD in 2013. This year, while splitting time with LeMonte Booker, Logan has steadily improved his numbers over the last few weeks, although the majority of the offense has come from the passing game.

Prediction:

Much like last week against Bryant, at first blush this seemed like a pretty one-sided game when the schedule was announced earlier this year. The MVFC is the top conference in the FCS as I mentioned at the top, so even a team like the Sycamores would present a challenge for the Flames on both sides of the ball. If Liberty can get off to another fast start like they have the last two weeks, that will help the confidence as the afternoon wears on. The Sycamores have proven to be turnover machines this year as they have forced 5 turnovers in the first three games, including 3 fumble recoveries against Tennessee Tech, so holding onto the ball will be a key for the Flames, who have not had a turnover in ths last 3 games.

The last time Liberty played an MVFC team, it was a last second field goal that won the day. I don't think it will come down to the bitter end like against Youngstown State, but I do think the Flames build on last week's victory and get another road victory

Liberty 33
Indiana State 30

Fan the Flames Football Review: Bryant

The Liberty Flames made a statement last Saturday night as they jumped out to a 24-0 lead on the way to a 38-21 win over the #25 Bryant Bulldogs, their first win over a ranked non-conference opponent at home since 2008 when the Flames defeated Elon (ranked #14/12 at the time) in the season finale.

Josh Woodrum had his second straight 300+ yard passing game, and even had a pair of touchdown runs, including a career long 30 yard run in the second half.

Darrin "Petey" Peterson finished with 100+ yards for the second straight game (110 to be precise) but finished without a TD catch for the third time this season.

DJ Abnar and Todd Macon had a solid game, while Abnar missed out on another 100 yard game courtesy of a long run being negated by a penalty.

The story of the game though was the issues with the special teams. Jon Lunsford, making his second attempt of the season, barely knocked in a school record 57 yard field goal, banking it in off the left upright, but then missing a more routine kick from 35 yards out. Trey Turner mishandled a snap giving Bryant a short field for one TD, and Zac Parker, who had an electrifying touchdown against Brevard on a jet sweep, fumbled a punt out of bounds and misplayed a kickoff, which led to Alpha Jalloh fielding the opening kick of the second half.

Inside the Numbers

Here are a few numbers coming out of the game last week:

18:12- Coming into the game, Bryant had allowed an average of 10.7 points per game. It took Liberty 18 minutes and 12 seconds of game time to pass that average on a 3 yard DJ Abnar TD run
9- Liberty finished the game with 9 penalties for 79 yards. Coming into the game, Liberty averaged just over 4 penalties.
5- Josh Woodrum has 5 career rushing TDs after scoring twice on option looks.He finished with 21 TDs on the ground at Cave Spring High School
106- The 106 yards by Dalton Easton was more than the Flames had allowed through the air in the previous two games...combined.

Next up for the Flames is a key test against Indiana State of the Missouri Valley on Saturday at 3 PM.

Fan the Flames Football Forecast: Bryant

The Liberty Flames started fast in their final (scheduled) game against a Division II opponent, scoring the first 21 points on the way to a 56-31 victory over Brevard College in the 25th home opener at Williams Stadium. Now to look ahead to a game that has a much higher degree of importance than when it was first scheduled...

#25 Bryant University (3-0, 0-0)

vs.

#24 Liberty University (2-1, 0-0)

Matchup

Location: Arthur L. Williams Stadium, Lynchburg VA

Series: First Meeting

Last Meeting:First Meeting

Kickoff:; 7:00 PM

Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play),WOON 1240 AM Bryant Bulldogs Radio Network (Bryant)

Television: Liberty Flames Sports Network/ESPN3 (Liberty) Mike Tilley play-by-play

Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd Season at Liberty, 16-10 Record), Marty Fine (11th Season at Bryant, 65-46 Record)
Last Week: Liberty 56-31 vs. Brevard. Bryant 16-10 vs. #20 Maine

This is the 4th time in 5 years that Liberty has faced a team from the Northeast Conference (2010- St Francis at Lynchburg City Stadium, 2011- Robert Morris, 2013-Monmouth, although they were an FCS independent at the time).

The Bulldogs come in with a world of momentum, coming off an upset win over Maine, their second win over a team from the CAA following a win over former Big South member Stony Brook (who interestingly enough, was ALSO a member of the Northeast Conference before joining the Big South in 2008).

Bryant has lived and died on its stout defense. In 3 games (2 D1 and D2 Merrimack), the Bulldogs have allowed, in order: 7, 14, and 10 points. Liberty, by contrast, has allowed: 59, 0, and 31 points, but has scored 26, 17 and 56 points (the 56 coming in last week's win over D2 Brevard). The Bulldogs are facing a very explosive Liberty offense with a lot of playmakers, and in an enviroment probably more hostile than any they have ever played in.

Liberty had what some would consider a lackluster defensive performance against the Tornados, but a stellar offensive performance, topping the 600 yard mark for the first time since the double overtime loss to Coastal Carolina at home last year.

Defensive coordinator Robert Wimberly, in his postgame comments, did not want to change the calls and terminology for what likely will be the only triple option team the Flames face all year.

 Junior RB DJ Abnar had a career high 161 yards and 2 TDs, Darrin Peterson narrowly missed getting a 200 yard game, but scored from 80+ yards out in the home opener for the second consecutive year, thanks to an electrifying 86 yard TD catch in the 4th quarter. Josh Woodrum finished with the most yards in a game since his 382 yards also against Coastal Carolina last season.


Prediction

Bryant comes into Lynchburg with a stout defense, probably second to Norfolk State as far as FCS defenses go on the schedule this year. For Liberty to win this game, they need to do the same thing they did against Brevard last week: start fast. If the Flames can get off to a 21-0 lead like they did last week, they can break the will of the Bulldogs and probably cruise from there. If the game stays in the teens and Bryant can keep the margin to a touchdown or less, the Flames might tighten up despite being in front of the home crowd and give them a chance to pull the upset. I like Liberty to win here, but when I did my game by game predictions for this game, I had Liberty winning 41-17. While I now don't think this one will be that one sided, I do still think the Flames pull away late and get another home victory, their first against a ranked non-conference opponent

Liberty 30
Bryant 17

Fan the Flames Review: Brevard

The Liberty Flames won their fourth straight home game on Saturday night 56-31 over the Brevard Tornados, the 11th win in the last 12 home openers. Liberty has not lost to a lower division opponent in 11 years, something we will touch on again later.

Josh Woodrum finished with 327 yards and 4 TDs, his 9th game with multiple TD passes.

DJ Abnar had a breakout game with 161 yards (career high) and 2 TDs.

Darrin Peterson finished with 182 yards, his 5th career 100 yard game, tying with Liberty Athletics Hall of Fame Members Fred Banks and and Kelvin Edwards along with standouts Dominic Bolden and Eric Green (who probably will be in the LU Hall of Fame soon himself, but that is for another post)

Inside the Numbers

Here are a few interesting numbers coming out of last night's win:

0- After finishing with 6 turnovers in their season opening loss to North Carolina, Liberty has not had a single turnover in back to back games

4- Josh Woodrum finished with his 4th career 300 yard passing game, tying for 5th all-time in program history with Antwan Chiles. Four is also the number of TD passes Woodrum had, a career high.

7- With his 327 yards, the junior became the 7th quarterback in program history to throw for 5,000 or more yards

28- The Flames won their 28th consecutive game against a lower division opponent. You have to go all the way back to 1993 to find Liberty's last loss, against Indiana, PA

Also, with his 161 yards against Brevard, DJ Abnar became the 28th player in program history to record multiple 100 yard rushing games in his career

31- The 31 points scored by Brevard is a record most points allowed by Liberty to a lower division opponent. The previous record was 27 by Edinboro all the way back in 1989