Fan the Flames Football Forecast: North Carolina

Welcome to the first week of football for the 2014 season Flames Fans! If you want some excellent in depth coverage of the Flames from training camp, check out Jon Manson and Duke Cuneo over at Liberty Flames Nation.

Now for the season opener:

Liberty (0-0, 0-0)

vs.

#23/#23 North Carolina (0-0, 0-0)

Liberty opens with an FBS opponent for the third straight season and 4th time in the last 5 seasons (the only exception being the 2010 season opener against St Francis (PA) at Lynchburg City Stadium). This is the third time in four years that the Flames face a foe from the Atlantic Coast Conference (2011- NC State, 2012- Wake Forest), and according to what I've read on FlameFans and the Lynchburg News & Advance (where Chris Lang does outstanding work covering Liberty athletics), this is the first time the Flames have taken on a ranked opponent from the former Division 1-A. 

Matchup

Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

Series: First Meeting

Kickoff: 6:00 PM
Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play. Tar Heel Sports Network (UNC) Jones Angell play-by-play

Television: ESPN3

Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd season at Liberty, 14-9 Record); Larry Fedora (3rd season at UNC, 16-9 Record)

One of the big questions heading into the game for the Tar Heels heading into this matchup is who would be the one taking the first snap of the season. Two players were under consideration throughout spring football and all the way through training camp: Marquise Williams, the redshirt junior who started 6 games last year, and Mitch Trubisky, a highly touted recruit out of Ohio who graduated a semester early so he could compete for the job in spring 2013, but redshirted last season.  Head Coach Larry Fedora has kept things very close to the vest as to who his starter will be, so I expect Liberty has done their best to prepare for both possibilities.

For Liberty, the big question on offense is DJ Abnar. He stepped into the starting running back position after 2013 starter Des Rice suffered a knee injury during the final spring practice session and will sit out 2014. Abnar is a very talented back, but at 185 pounds, the concern is whether he can handle being the feature back, having never had more than 20 carries in a game, or been a real between the tackles type runner. Todd Macon, one of the top gets in the 2013 recruiting class, won the backup job, and I would not be surprised if he got a fair number of touches to keep DJ fresh.

Prediction:

Liberty has made it a habit over the last 8 seasons to be competitive against FBS schools, especially in the (former) BCS AQ conferences. Here are the results in those games since current Richmond head coach Danny Rocco took the helm in 2006:

2006: Wake Forest 34-14

2009: West Virginia 33-20

2011: NC State 43-21

2012: Wake Forest 20-17

In four matchups, the Flames lost by a combined 170-72, but lost by more than 14 points twice. Against NC State, the Flames were within 9 points late in the 4th quarter before sloppy offensive play led to the last 2 Wolfpack TDs. Against Wake Forest in 2012, the Demon Deacons needed a TD with about 5 minutes to go to take the lead after trailing much of the second half. 

In short, Liberty has not been one to roll over in these matchups. UNC did defeat ODU (entering their first full season of Conference USA play this year) 80-20 last year, but I think Liberty is much more capable of a competitive matchup than the Monarchs were that day (even with former Walter Payton Award winner Taylor Heinecke). The Flames know that a good showing down on Tobacco Road could give them a real kickstart with a 4 game stretch against Norfolk State, Brevard, Bryant, and Indiana State on the horizon. UNC has to be careful not to overlook the boys from Lynchburg with a matchup against San Diego State on the horizon for themselves. I think the Flames keep it close as they have been known to do the last few years, but come up a bit short, gaining some much needed confidence though heading into the season

Liberty 24

UNC 34

I'll have an interview with Andrew Carter from the News-Observer, beat writer for UNC, posted later on this week, plus I will try to post a video with my keys to the game on Friday.