Usually in this space I take a few minutes and talk to the beat writer for the upcoming opponent, but with Brevard not having a beat writer, I thought I would take the space this week and talk to Chris Lang, the Liberty Flames beat writer for the Lynchburg News and Advance. Chris came to Lynchburg after a stint in Arizona covering Northern Arizona and is probably the best beat writer at the FCS level. He actually helped me out in a small way with getting my gig as a freelance writer for the paper.
Fan the Flames: Ive read (both on your blog and on the FlameFans message board) that
the Norfolk State game last week was one of, if not the most important
of the non-conference games on the schedule (UNC and App State
notwithstanding). What does getting a win do for the confidence of the
team, especially given the lack of success that the Flames have had in
non-conference road games, particularly against in-state schools?
Chris Lang: Well, the in-state thing is a bit overblown, and beating Norfolk State
does nothing to prove the Flames can beat the better in-state FCS
competition, schools like James Madison, William & Mary and
Richmond (Note: this year's homecoming opponent). You've got to remember there were major extenuating
circumstances in the two Norfolk State losses. One came two days after
Ken Karcher was fired, and the other came at home the same week that
Turner Gill was gone for a week mourning the death of his mother. The
road win was a much bigger deal for the confidence of the team, because
the Flames haven't been able to make plays down the stretch in close
road games under Gill. They had chances to beat Kent State, Wake Forest
and Old Dominion and shrunk in the fourth quarter in each loss. Saturday,
they made a big special teams play (the punt pinning NSU at its 1), got
a huge defensive stop and scored a game-clinching touchdown in the
fourth quarter. The Norfolk State game wasn't necessarily the most
important non-conference game, but it was more important than North
Carolina. Liberty needs to sweep its non-conference FCS games to have
any shot of an at-large playoff bid, so each of those weeks are like
one-week playoff elimination games. Saturday was a good start.
FTF: Earlier today (as I'm writing this email it is Monday),
the entire defensive line for Liberty was honored as the defensive
player of the week by the Big South. Just how good is this group and can
they carry the team going forward?
CL: Vantz Singletary, the defensive line coach, was very candid in his
praise for just about every player in that group in the preseason, and
he's been proven right so far. Chima Uzowihe has a very good chance at
leaving LU as the school's all-time leader in sacks. Niko (Dominique) Davis has been
a find in the middle, and JaRon Greene is using the experience he
earned as a true freshman to make him a game wrecker at the nose
position. There was a lot of talk about losing Francis Bah and Jibrille
Fewell, but Fewell was inconsistent at best and Bah was never healthy
enough to be a factor last year. The unit is deep and physical and
showed its worth by holding its own against UNC in the opener.
Definitely a strength of the defense.
FTF: The Flames go into this week's game heavily favored over the D2
Tornadoes. While I won't ask what is the key to victory, I am wondering
what sort of things will the coaches want to see from the players in
this matchup that will help them going forward, with this being the only
non-D1 matchup on the schedule this year?
CL: I'm pretty sure the coaching staff wants to see a fast start with
it being the home opener. I know they want to see the run game improve,
though it's really tough to judge D.J. Abnar and Todd Macon on the
first two games seeing as one was a guarantee game and the other was
against one of the top defenses in the FCS. Ideally, they'd love to be
able to get an extended look at both Javan Shashaty and Stephon Masha at
quarterback, provided the game is in hand by halftime.
FTF: Speaking of schedules, while I know we are only on game 3 of 2014
this week, what is the status of the 2015 schedule? By my count, 10 of
the 11 opponents are known (6 BSC games plus Georgia State, West
Virginia, Montana and, unless things have changed, JMU). Is there any
indication as to who the 11th oppoent is, or at least what conference
they are from?
CL: The 11th opponent is likely to be a home game against a
lower-level FCS team, probably someone from the MEAC or the Northeast
Conference. JMU is still on, as is Montana. With two money games and two
games against top-level FCS programs on the schedule, Liberty will be
looking for a home breather for the final piece of the schedule.
FTF: Dante Shells had a couple big catches in the win over Norfolk State,
including one to set up the first touchdown. With his having to start
the season as essentially the 4th WR, what does this do for his
confidence after his issues with drops?
CL: It's big. He actually worked his way back to the No. 3 option
soon after he was dropped down the depth chart. Josh Woodrum says
Dante's biggest issue is that he tends to look upfield for a run lane
before he secures the ball. Shells showed increased focus when the ball
was thrown his way last week. You've got to remember that he's still a
young guy, even though he's been on campus for a few years now.
Confidence comes from game experience.
FTF: What is the story with the running backs? Todd Macon goes from Big
South Freshman of the Week to getting only three carries, one of which
was on the final drive of the game?
CL: I just think Macon might have been physically overmatched against
NSU's aggressive defensive front. Plus, (DJ) Abnar is much more of a threat
in the short passing game. Macon will be back in a big way this week.
FTF: Last question...with Coastal barely edging out NC A&T a week
after a dominating win over The Citadel, is there a chance that the
Chanticleers may be a little overrated relative to their ranking in most
polls, and is the kind of performance that they had in Greensboro cause
for concern down on the Grand Strand?
CL: Not at all. North Carolina A&T is an improving program with a
proven coach in Rod Broadway, and Coastal knew that was going to be a
tough road trip. The cause for concern comes from having five turnovers
in that game. But I think people are underrating just how tough it is to
win on the road in college football. A&T beat Appalachian State in
Boone last season and was a contender in the MEAC. Had Coastal struggled
against Savannah State, I might feel differently.
Thanks to Chris for taking a few minutes, you can follow him on Twitter @ChrisLangLNA and you can read his work in the Lynchburg News and Advance www.newsadvance.com
Friday I will be posting my video preview of Brevard on Youtube so make sure to check it out
Fan the Flames
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Monday, September 8, 2014
Fan the Flames Football Forecast: Brevard
The Liberty Flames got back on the winning trackk last Saturday, getting their first road win of teh season in a 17-0 shutout of Norfolk State, the 23rd in program history. Josh Woodrum garnered his 10th game with 200 or more yards, and the Flames offense topped 400 yards for the 4th straight game dating back to last season.
This week the Flames get their first chance to play before the home crowd in Lynchburg, and they welcome a familiar foe to the mountain for the opener...
Coach Hamilton, the only coach the team has had since the relaunch of the football program in 2007, took the Tornados to a winning record in 2009, just missing the playoffs thanks to a loss to Carson-Newman.
This week the Flames get their first chance to play before the home crowd in Lynchburg, and they welcome a familiar foe to the mountain for the opener...
Brevard (0-1, 0-0)
vs.
Liberty (1-1, 0-0)
Matchup
Location: Arthur L. Williams Stadium, Lynchburg VA
Series: Second Meeting (Liberty leads 1-0)
Last Meeting: 2013 (Liberty 59-21)
Kickoff:; 7:00 PM
Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play), WSQL AM 1240/Brevard Tornadoes Radio Network (Brevard) Rick James play-by-play
Television: Liberty Flames Sports Network/ESPN3 (Liberty) Mike Tilley play-by-play
Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd Season at Liberty, 15-10 Record), Paul Hamilton (8th Season at Brevard, 28-63 Record)
This is the second and final meeting between these two schools, after Brevard paid a visit to Lynchburg in 2013 as Liberty filled in a gap in their schedule brought about by the postponement of the JMU game. Liberty is not planning on scheduling anymore D2 programs so as to bolster their strength of schedule and place themselves in a better position for a berth to the FCS Playoffs.
Coach Hamilton, the only coach the team has had since the relaunch of the football program in 2007, took the Tornados to a winning record in 2009, just missing the playoffs thanks to a loss to Carson-Newman.
Prediction:
Liberty will want to make a statement, especially after allowing 253 yards rushing and 21 points last year. This is the home opener for the Flames, and coming off the momentum of their first road win over an in-state opponent in 17 years, Liberty will not want to havea letdown in front of what will be a very large crowd at Williams Stadium. Yesterday I predicted that we could see a record from Liberty in this matchup, but after thinking about it, I think Liberty summarily pounds Brevard, but we may not be rewriting that line in the books, at least not this time around
Liberty 59
Brevard 7
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Fan the Flames Review: Norfolk State
Recap
The Liberty Flames made history of sorts on Saturday. Josh Woodrum passed for 208 yards and TD while the Flames defense pitched the first shutout of the season as Liberty picked up its second ever victory in the city of Norfolk 17-0 over the Norfolk State Spartans.
The day started inauspiciously as Liberty went three plays and out on the first drive of the game, as two DJ Abnar rushes and an incomplete pass led to a punt from Trey Turner. Norfolk State took over on its own 42 and drove down the field with relative ease against the Flames defense, until Jacob Hagen made his presence felt, stripping Aaron Daniels of the ball as he crossed the 10 yard line. Rejuvenated, the offense drove 88 yards, capping the drive with an Avery Echols field goal, his first in a Liberty uniform. That first drive was the closest NSU would get to scoring the rest of the day.
Both teams exchanged punts repeatedly, until NSU freshman QB Terrance Ervin, making his first career start against the team he once committed to, tossed his first interception, as Hagen stepped in front of a pass and returned it into NSU territory. The Flames would cash in two plays later as Josh Woodrum would score his first rushing TD of the season, and first since the 2013 finale against Charleston Southern.
The teams would have some success moving the ball, but largely it remained a punting competition until the 4th quarter, when Woodrum hooked up with DJ Abnar for the first passing TD of the season on a throwback screen.
Neither team ran the ball particularly well, with the Flames finishing with 72 yards on 26 carries (2.8 per rush), while Norfolk State ended the afternoon with 159 yards on 45 carries (3.5 yards per rush). DJ Abnar finished with 38 yards on the ground for Liberty, while Aaron Daniels, despite the fumble, finished with 75 yards to lead Norfolk State. Darrin Peterson finished with 69 yards to go over 1000 receiving yards for his career. The Flames finished with 6 sacks on Ervin while the NSU defense got to Woodrum twice.
Inside the Numbers
Im debuting an interesting sidelight to the blog, and will give some numbers you won't usually find if you look at the boxscores from week to week.
Here are this week's interesting numbers coming out of the game:
9- It has been 9 years since Liberty rushed for fewer than 100 yards in consecutive games. More than likely that run will continue with Brevard coming to Lynchburg next week
1050- Number of receiving yards Darrin Peterson has following his performance on Saturday.
6- The win yesterday ended a 6 game losing streak for Turner Gill away from Williams Stadium. The win also ended a 6 game losing streak against in-state teams not named VMI on the road (Last win: 17-6 vs. Norfolk State in 1997)
10- Josh Woodrum threw for 208 yards, his 10th game with 200+ yards through air.
17- 17 is the fewest points in a Liberty victory since scoring 17 in a win over VMI in 2013 (The record for fewest points in a victory is 9, accomplished 3 times, most recently 1992)
99- The Flames have scored a point in 99 consecutive games dating back to 2005. The last time Liberty failed to score a point was in a 56-0 loss to William and Mary (10/22/2005).
45- Liberty has scored in double figures in 45 consecutive games. The last time Liberty failed to score in double figures was 2010, when the Flames lost to James Madison 10-3 in Harrisonburg.
23- The shutout yesterday was the 23rd in program history, and the first over a non-conference, Division I opponent since a 21-0 win over Western Carolina in 2006, This is the first ever over an in-state non-conference opponent.
We will be back with a preview of the home opener tomorrow.
Fan the Flames
The Liberty Flames made history of sorts on Saturday. Josh Woodrum passed for 208 yards and TD while the Flames defense pitched the first shutout of the season as Liberty picked up its second ever victory in the city of Norfolk 17-0 over the Norfolk State Spartans.
The day started inauspiciously as Liberty went three plays and out on the first drive of the game, as two DJ Abnar rushes and an incomplete pass led to a punt from Trey Turner. Norfolk State took over on its own 42 and drove down the field with relative ease against the Flames defense, until Jacob Hagen made his presence felt, stripping Aaron Daniels of the ball as he crossed the 10 yard line. Rejuvenated, the offense drove 88 yards, capping the drive with an Avery Echols field goal, his first in a Liberty uniform. That first drive was the closest NSU would get to scoring the rest of the day.
Both teams exchanged punts repeatedly, until NSU freshman QB Terrance Ervin, making his first career start against the team he once committed to, tossed his first interception, as Hagen stepped in front of a pass and returned it into NSU territory. The Flames would cash in two plays later as Josh Woodrum would score his first rushing TD of the season, and first since the 2013 finale against Charleston Southern.
The teams would have some success moving the ball, but largely it remained a punting competition until the 4th quarter, when Woodrum hooked up with DJ Abnar for the first passing TD of the season on a throwback screen.
Neither team ran the ball particularly well, with the Flames finishing with 72 yards on 26 carries (2.8 per rush), while Norfolk State ended the afternoon with 159 yards on 45 carries (3.5 yards per rush). DJ Abnar finished with 38 yards on the ground for Liberty, while Aaron Daniels, despite the fumble, finished with 75 yards to lead Norfolk State. Darrin Peterson finished with 69 yards to go over 1000 receiving yards for his career. The Flames finished with 6 sacks on Ervin while the NSU defense got to Woodrum twice.
Inside the Numbers
Im debuting an interesting sidelight to the blog, and will give some numbers you won't usually find if you look at the boxscores from week to week.
Here are this week's interesting numbers coming out of the game:
9- It has been 9 years since Liberty rushed for fewer than 100 yards in consecutive games. More than likely that run will continue with Brevard coming to Lynchburg next week
1050- Number of receiving yards Darrin Peterson has following his performance on Saturday.
6- The win yesterday ended a 6 game losing streak for Turner Gill away from Williams Stadium. The win also ended a 6 game losing streak against in-state teams not named VMI on the road (Last win: 17-6 vs. Norfolk State in 1997)
10- Josh Woodrum threw for 208 yards, his 10th game with 200+ yards through air.
17- 17 is the fewest points in a Liberty victory since scoring 17 in a win over VMI in 2013 (The record for fewest points in a victory is 9, accomplished 3 times, most recently 1992)
99- The Flames have scored a point in 99 consecutive games dating back to 2005. The last time Liberty failed to score a point was in a 56-0 loss to William and Mary (10/22/2005).
45- Liberty has scored in double figures in 45 consecutive games. The last time Liberty failed to score in double figures was 2010, when the Flames lost to James Madison 10-3 in Harrisonburg.
23- The shutout yesterday was the 23rd in program history, and the first over a non-conference, Division I opponent since a 21-0 win over Western Carolina in 2006, This is the first ever over an in-state non-conference opponent.
We will be back with a preview of the home opener tomorrow.
Fan the Flames
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Some NSU Perspective on the Game
As we are two days away from the second game of the season, I thought it would be fun to talk to another beat writer and get some opponent perspective heading into this weekend, so I dropped a line to David Hall, NSU writer for the paper in my hometown, the Virginian-Pilot.
Fan the Flames: How did the team feel following the performance against Maine last Saturday? (a 10-6 Spartans loss)
David Hall: I
think they walked away mostly encouraged, despite the lack of offense.
Maine is a top-25 FCS team, which bodes well for how the Spartans might
stack up against the MEAC. Plus, it was a tough trip. The team flew into
Portland, Maine, early Friday, bussed 2 1/2 hours to Orono for a workout and then returned for the game Saturday night. I can tell you firsthand: Maine is far.
FTF: Quarterback has been a question mark since the spring. Did any of the
three QBs (Malik Stokes, Omari-Ali Timmons, Terrance Ervin) show any
sign of taking a lead in that competition?
DH: NSU
coach Pete Adrian was especially impressed with Ervin, who debuted late
in the fourth quarter with the game on the line and almost pulled it
out. Although Adrian won’t name a starter this week, it wouldn’t
surprise me to see Ervin take the field. Meanwhile, let’s not forget
about junior left-hander Tyler Clark, who was named the starter after
spring ball but couldn’t recover from a hamstring injury in time for the
opener. His activity has increased this week, so he could be a factor.
FTF: How good is the defense and is it a unit that can carry the Spartans this year?
DH: Adrian
said the defense is as good as he’s had in his 10 years at the school.
Opposing coordinators have to account for 6-foot-7 linebacker Lynden
Trail, who will likely play in the NFL. And NSU’s secondary is as good
as they come at the FCS level.
FTF: Looking ahead to this weekend, what is the biggest key for Norfolk
State if they want to even the series with Liberty and likely spoil
their at large aspirations
DH: It’s
pretty simple: The Spartans have to show improvement on offense. They
proved their defensive mettle against Maine, but 100 yards of total
offense won’t cut it against anybody. When Maine started bringing
pressure early in the game, NSU’s offense looked out of sorts. The
coaches will have to solve that problem quickly.
FTF: Is this game the "Super Bowl" for the Spartans or are they treating
this as just another game, one that could help their own playoff
aspirations even though it is only the second game of the season for
both teams?
DH: With
all due respect to Liberty, I wouldn’t say NSU is treating this game
any differently. Every game is important, and this one is no bigger than
any other non-conference contest on the schedule. The Spartans’ main
concern, in my opinion, is getting things in order before their MEAC
opener against Morgan State on Sept. 27.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Fan the Flames Football Forecast: Norfolk State
The Liberty Flames fought gamely against the #23 North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill last weekend, but 6 turnovers, including 3 in a 3:49 stretch in the third quarter, proved too much to overcome as UNC scored 28 straight points on the way to a 56-29 victory. Josh Woodrum finished with 189 yards but went without a TD pass for the first time since the VMI game last year.
There were some major bright spots despite the loss. Redshirt freshman Todd Macon finished with 67 yards and his first two rushing touchdowns in a Liberty uniform, which bookended the scoring for the Flames on Saturday night.
Another bright spot came from one of the biggest question marks for Liberty, the defensive secondary. Kenny Scott, preseason all-conference at corner, as well as Gary Sampson and newcomer Alpha Jalloh snared a pass on the night against a team that threw a total of 11 interceptions the entire 2013 season.
Finally, the offensive line did a marvelous job against a top level defense, allowing just 1 sack and only 9 yards in negative plays on the night.
There is no rest for the weary as the Flames hit the road once again to take on their first of two in-state opponents on the schedule:
There were some major bright spots despite the loss. Redshirt freshman Todd Macon finished with 67 yards and his first two rushing touchdowns in a Liberty uniform, which bookended the scoring for the Flames on Saturday night.
Another bright spot came from one of the biggest question marks for Liberty, the defensive secondary. Kenny Scott, preseason all-conference at corner, as well as Gary Sampson and newcomer Alpha Jalloh snared a pass on the night against a team that threw a total of 11 interceptions the entire 2013 season.
Finally, the offensive line did a marvelous job against a top level defense, allowing just 1 sack and only 9 yards in negative plays on the night.
There is no rest for the weary as the Flames hit the road once again to take on their first of two in-state opponents on the schedule:
Liberty (0-1, 0-0)
vs.
Norfolk State (0-1, 0-0)
Matchup
Location: Dick Price Stadium, Norfolk, VA
Series: Sixth Meeting (Liberty leads 3-2)
Last Meeting: 2012 (Norfolk State 31-24)
Last Meeting: 2012 (Norfolk State 31-24)
Kickoff: 4:00 PM
Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play. NSU Spartans Radio Network, Star 1310 (NSU) Ross Gordon play-by-play
Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play. NSU Spartans Radio Network, Star 1310 (NSU) Ross Gordon play-by-play
Television: Liberty Flames Sports Network/ESPN3 (Liberty) Mike Tilley play-by-play. Spartan Showcase Media (NSU)
Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd season at Liberty, 14-10 Record); Pete Adrian (10th season at Norfolk State, 50-53 Record
Last Week: Liberty 26-59 vs. #23 North Carolina (FBS), Norfolk State 6-10 vs. Maine
Norfolk State has carried the most recent success in this series, winning the last two meetings (34-17 in 2005 and 31-24 in 2012). Liberty has not won a game in Norfolk (following a 21-17 loss to ODU in 2013)since 1997.
Coach Adrian is actually tied for the longest tenured coach in Spartans history along with the man whose name is on the stadium where Adrian's Spartans call home, Dick Price. Adrian enters this season 3rd all-time in wins behind Price and the only other coach with more than 7 seasons at the helm of the Spartan ship, Willard Bailey.
Prediction:
This is not the same Norfolk State team that came into Lynchburg and got one of the biggest non-conference wins in the history of the program in 2012. Their top running back from 2013, Deuce Finch, graduated, as well as the triggerman for the offense that year, Nico Flores. Liberty will want to make a statement in this game after the performance down in Chapel Hill. Duke Cuneo, from LibertyFlamesNation.com made an interesting point on the FlameFans message board, and Chris Lang, beat writer from the Lynchburg News and Advance, echoed that sentiment in his notes today. This game is probably the most important game on the schedule from a non-conference standpoint, because its the one game that could be a "WTF game" on the schedule for Liberty. The only other games on the schedule after this week where Liberty probably will not be favored will be Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and possibly Richmond as well. Win this one and you have a chance to be 4-1 going into homecoming weekend. Lose this one and you probably can kiss the at-large goodbye two weeks into the season. I think the Flames recover from the Tar Heel funk and make a statement down in Norfolk. This is a game I plan to be at in person and I believe it ends much differently than my last trip into Dick Price Stadium
Liberty 31
Norfolk State 14
As a postscript, an interesting angle to this game is that of freshman QB Terrance Ervin. After starring at LC Bird High School, Ervin committed to the Flames last year, and was going to be the jewel of the class for Turner Gill, likely battling with Stephon Masha for the starting job once Josh Woodrum finished up his career on the mountain. Ervin, however, had other ideas, no doubt expecting to compete for the job right away. So, he reopened his recruitment and eventually signed with Norfolk State after being connected to Delaware State, North Carolina Central and even JMU. Ervin no doubt will want to show the Flames what they may have missed out on by not signing him this past February.
Last Week: Liberty 26-59 vs. #23 North Carolina (FBS), Norfolk State 6-10 vs. Maine
Norfolk State has carried the most recent success in this series, winning the last two meetings (34-17 in 2005 and 31-24 in 2012). Liberty has not won a game in Norfolk (following a 21-17 loss to ODU in 2013)since 1997.
Coach Adrian is actually tied for the longest tenured coach in Spartans history along with the man whose name is on the stadium where Adrian's Spartans call home, Dick Price. Adrian enters this season 3rd all-time in wins behind Price and the only other coach with more than 7 seasons at the helm of the Spartan ship, Willard Bailey.
Prediction:
This is not the same Norfolk State team that came into Lynchburg and got one of the biggest non-conference wins in the history of the program in 2012. Their top running back from 2013, Deuce Finch, graduated, as well as the triggerman for the offense that year, Nico Flores. Liberty will want to make a statement in this game after the performance down in Chapel Hill. Duke Cuneo, from LibertyFlamesNation.com made an interesting point on the FlameFans message board, and Chris Lang, beat writer from the Lynchburg News and Advance, echoed that sentiment in his notes today. This game is probably the most important game on the schedule from a non-conference standpoint, because its the one game that could be a "WTF game" on the schedule for Liberty. The only other games on the schedule after this week where Liberty probably will not be favored will be Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and possibly Richmond as well. Win this one and you have a chance to be 4-1 going into homecoming weekend. Lose this one and you probably can kiss the at-large goodbye two weeks into the season. I think the Flames recover from the Tar Heel funk and make a statement down in Norfolk. This is a game I plan to be at in person and I believe it ends much differently than my last trip into Dick Price Stadium
Liberty 31
Norfolk State 14
As a postscript, an interesting angle to this game is that of freshman QB Terrance Ervin. After starring at LC Bird High School, Ervin committed to the Flames last year, and was going to be the jewel of the class for Turner Gill, likely battling with Stephon Masha for the starting job once Josh Woodrum finished up his career on the mountain. Ervin, however, had other ideas, no doubt expecting to compete for the job right away. So, he reopened his recruitment and eventually signed with Norfolk State after being connected to Delaware State, North Carolina Central and even JMU. Ervin no doubt will want to show the Flames what they may have missed out on by not signing him this past February.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Some UNC Perspective on the game
We are just under 31 hours away from the season opener down in Chapel Hill, and the excitement is palpable in both Tar Heel Nation and Flames Nation. I had a change to chat with Andrew Carter from the Raleigh News and Observer, a beat writer for UNC. I asked him a few questions about this game, but I opened by asking him about his thoughts on the expectations in THN heading into this season after winning 6 of 7 including a sound beating of Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl, and he said:
People around here are approaching the season with cautious optimism. UNC is young – there's only one senior starter on offense, and there only six seniors on the two-deep depth chart – but the talent level is as high as it has been in a while, especially at the skill positions on offense. The Tar Heels haven't won more than eight games since 1997 (UNC finished 11-1 that year), but there's a belief that UNC can finally break through this season. It helps, too, that the ACC's Coastal Division is wide open (UNC was picked to finish 4th in the preseason poll).
The biggest question heading into the game tomorrow is obviously the QB position (where Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky have been battling hammer and tongs since the start of spring ball, with no clear cut winner between the two), the next biggest question mark actually is where this game is most definitely won or lost, and that is in the trenches:
UNC lost two starters on both lines, and both position groups are without their best players from last season. Offensively, the Tar Heels are starting three first-time starters on the line, including left tackle John Ferranto. Defensively, UNC doesn't have a proven pass rusher outside of Norkeithus Otis, who plays the bandit position – a hybrid defensive end/linebacker. How the Tar Heels come together up front on both sides will determine their success.
I mentioned the battle between Williams and Trubisky, so I asked Andrew about wheether or not there is a disadvantage to having both QBs available this weekend. While the adage is sometimes true that says "if you have two QBs, its like having no QBs", Andrew doesn't really think that the Heels have a problem here:
I'm not sure there's a disadvantage there but the advantage is that UNC has two quarterbacks it feels strongly about. Williams is a fourth-year junior who started five games last season, and probably exceeded expectations. Trubisky is a redshirt freshman who arrived as a heralded recruit. They competed throughout the spring and the preseason for the starting job, but I'd be stunned if Williams didn't start Saturday. That said, the quarterback competition could continue into the season.
Finally, this post was delayed because Andrew was dealing with a late breaking story this week centering around an alleged hazing incident, that I believe was later termed a "prank gone wrong" or something. This incident led to the suspension of 4 players, all defensive backs including two players slated to start this weekend. I asked how this affected the team mindset headed into the weekend:
It's difficult to know exactly how investigation into an off-the-field altercation is affecting the team. As you mention, four players defensive backs (sic) are suspended for this game, including the two starting cornerbacks. The whole thing is another controversy, on top of many, for the athletic department, and it certainly takes some of the luster off the start of the season. How will it affect the team, though? Difficult to say. Saturday should provide some answers.
Thanks again to Andrew Carter from the Raleigh News and Observer for answering a few questions for me. You can check out his work at www.newsobserver.com/sports
People around here are approaching the season with cautious optimism. UNC is young – there's only one senior starter on offense, and there only six seniors on the two-deep depth chart – but the talent level is as high as it has been in a while, especially at the skill positions on offense. The Tar Heels haven't won more than eight games since 1997 (UNC finished 11-1 that year), but there's a belief that UNC can finally break through this season. It helps, too, that the ACC's Coastal Division is wide open (UNC was picked to finish 4th in the preseason poll).
The biggest question heading into the game tomorrow is obviously the QB position (where Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky have been battling hammer and tongs since the start of spring ball, with no clear cut winner between the two), the next biggest question mark actually is where this game is most definitely won or lost, and that is in the trenches:
UNC lost two starters on both lines, and both position groups are without their best players from last season. Offensively, the Tar Heels are starting three first-time starters on the line, including left tackle John Ferranto. Defensively, UNC doesn't have a proven pass rusher outside of Norkeithus Otis, who plays the bandit position – a hybrid defensive end/linebacker. How the Tar Heels come together up front on both sides will determine their success.
I mentioned the battle between Williams and Trubisky, so I asked Andrew about wheether or not there is a disadvantage to having both QBs available this weekend. While the adage is sometimes true that says "if you have two QBs, its like having no QBs", Andrew doesn't really think that the Heels have a problem here:
I'm not sure there's a disadvantage there but the advantage is that UNC has two quarterbacks it feels strongly about. Williams is a fourth-year junior who started five games last season, and probably exceeded expectations. Trubisky is a redshirt freshman who arrived as a heralded recruit. They competed throughout the spring and the preseason for the starting job, but I'd be stunned if Williams didn't start Saturday. That said, the quarterback competition could continue into the season.
Obviously the Tar Heels are the favorite in this matchup, with the most recent line that I have seen sitting at -30.5 (according to 5Dimes.eu), but Liberty has shown a natural ability the last 8 seasons to stay very competitive in their FBS games (losing by 7 to Kent State by 7 last year, beating Ball State in Muncie in 2010, losing to UNC's fellow ACC compatriot Wake Forest by 3 in 2011 and losing 43-21 to NC State in 2012, although they were only down 9 late in the 4th quarter), so I asked him what the key would be for UNC to avoid becoming the 4th ranked 1-A/FBS school to lose to an FCS school:
The key for the Tar Heels
will be to get off to a strong start, take Liberty out of the game early
and then don't make mistakes that allow the Flames to hang around. It
always comes back to the cliché things. Don't turn the ball over. Don't
allow big plays. If UNC succeeds in those two areas on Saturday, it probably shouldn't have too much trouble.
I think that the first two possessions for each side are going to say a lot about which side will come out on top. The Tar Heels take their first trip out west when they face off with the Aztecs of San Diego State next Saturday night. Often times, when a team has a big game after a less than competitive game on the schedule, you will see them kind of "sleepwalk" through the first game, which can lead to either a lackluster victory, or sometimes, a loss. I asked Andrew how the team is preparing for this week and hoping to avoid that sort of malaise:
UNC hasn't had any problems
with overlooking FCS opponents during Fedora's tenure (defeating Elon 62-0 in his debut and routing Old Dominion 80-20 last November). The Tar Heels
have completely dominated this kind of competition in recent years, and
that's a testament to how well Fedora has prepared his players for these
types of games. It's difficult to explain exactly why, but the Tar
Heels just haven't had any trouble against lower-division opponents.
This is also the first game of the season. Guys have been looking
forward to it, regardless of the opponent, for a long time.
Finally, this post was delayed because Andrew was dealing with a late breaking story this week centering around an alleged hazing incident, that I believe was later termed a "prank gone wrong" or something. This incident led to the suspension of 4 players, all defensive backs including two players slated to start this weekend. I asked how this affected the team mindset headed into the weekend:
It's difficult to know exactly how investigation into an off-the-field altercation is affecting the team. As you mention, four players defensive backs (sic) are suspended for this game, including the two starting cornerbacks. The whole thing is another controversy, on top of many, for the athletic department, and it certainly takes some of the luster off the start of the season. How will it affect the team, though? Difficult to say. Saturday should provide some answers.
Thanks again to Andrew Carter from the Raleigh News and Observer for answering a few questions for me. You can check out his work at www.newsobserver.com/sports
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Fan the Flames Football Forecast: North Carolina
Welcome to the first week of football for the 2014 season Flames Fans! If you want some excellent in depth coverage of the Flames from training camp, check out Jon Manson and Duke Cuneo over at Liberty Flames Nation.
Now for the season opener:
Now for the season opener:
Liberty (0-0, 0-0)
vs.
#23/#23 North Carolina (0-0, 0-0)
Liberty opens with an FBS opponent for the third straight season and 4th time in the last 5 seasons (the only exception being the 2010 season opener against St Francis (PA) at Lynchburg City Stadium). This is the third time in four years that the Flames face a foe from the Atlantic Coast Conference (2011- NC State, 2012- Wake Forest), and according to what I've read on FlameFans and the Lynchburg News & Advance (where Chris Lang does outstanding work covering Liberty athletics), this is the first time the Flames have taken on a ranked opponent from the former Division 1-A.
Matchup
Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Series: First Meeting
Kickoff: 6:00 PM
Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play. Tar Heel Sports Network (UNC) Jones Angell play-by-play
Radio: Victory FM Radio Network (Liberty) Alan York play-by-play. Tar Heel Sports Network (UNC) Jones Angell play-by-play
Television: ESPN3
Coaches: Turner Gill (3rd season at Liberty, 14-9 Record); Larry Fedora (3rd season at UNC, 16-9 Record)
One of the big questions heading into the game for the Tar Heels heading into this matchup is who would be the one taking the first snap of the season. Two players were under consideration throughout spring football and all the way through training camp: Marquise Williams, the redshirt junior who started 6 games last year, and Mitch Trubisky, a highly touted recruit out of Ohio who graduated a semester early so he could compete for the job in spring 2013, but redshirted last season. Head Coach Larry Fedora has kept things very close to the vest as to who his starter will be, so I expect Liberty has done their best to prepare for both possibilities.
For Liberty, the big question on offense is DJ Abnar. He stepped into the starting running back position after 2013 starter Des Rice suffered a knee injury during the final spring practice session and will sit out 2014. Abnar is a very talented back, but at 185 pounds, the concern is whether he can handle being the feature back, having never had more than 20 carries in a game, or been a real between the tackles type runner. Todd Macon, one of the top gets in the 2013 recruiting class, won the backup job, and I would not be surprised if he got a fair number of touches to keep DJ fresh.
Prediction:
Liberty has made it a habit over the last 8 seasons to be competitive against FBS schools, especially in the (former) BCS AQ conferences. Here are the results in those games since current Richmond head coach Danny Rocco took the helm in 2006:
2006: Wake Forest 34-14
2009: West Virginia 33-20
2011: NC State 43-21
2012: Wake Forest 20-17
In four matchups, the Flames lost by a combined 170-72, but lost by more than 14 points twice. Against NC State, the Flames were within 9 points late in the 4th quarter before sloppy offensive play led to the last 2 Wolfpack TDs. Against Wake Forest in 2012, the Demon Deacons needed a TD with about 5 minutes to go to take the lead after trailing much of the second half.
In short, Liberty has not been one to roll over in these matchups. UNC did defeat ODU (entering their first full season of Conference USA play this year) 80-20 last year, but I think Liberty is much more capable of a competitive matchup than the Monarchs were that day (even with former Walter Payton Award winner Taylor Heinecke). The Flames know that a good showing down on Tobacco Road could give them a real kickstart with a 4 game stretch against Norfolk State, Brevard, Bryant, and Indiana State on the horizon. UNC has to be careful not to overlook the boys from Lynchburg with a matchup against San Diego State on the horizon for themselves. I think the Flames keep it close as they have been known to do the last few years, but come up a bit short, gaining some much needed confidence though heading into the season
Liberty 24
UNC 34
I'll have an interview with Andrew Carter from the News-Observer, beat writer for UNC, posted later on this week, plus I will try to post a video with my keys to the game on Friday.
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